Big issues on the table include outcomes of the forthcoming Congress of Parties (COP) 16 held later this year in Mexico, and the next steps that will be taken there following Copenhagen late last year. The fundamental question it boils down to is which nation will take the lead?

At the centre of the attention is the United States. In the U.S., President Obama proposed a 17 percent emissions reduction by 2020, but it is subject to legislation that is currently still pending.

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Mr. Heer of First Climate sees the price for carbon credits hovering at €10-15 at least through 2012. Under such conditions, he anticipates that EU demand will be the key price driver. Prices would be more robust if there was one unified market for global trading, he said.

Currently, are 1.2 billion certified emission reductions (CERs) to be issued through 2012 by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Of these credits, the majority of emissions reductions projects certified are in developing countries. China, India, and Brazil comprise some 72 percent of the projects, and primarily consist of renewable energy projects.

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The full article is available here:

http://www.eco-business.com/blog/2010/jul/10/outlook-carbon-markets-uncertain/